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Interesting articles

The falls in share markets this year - the bad news and the good

Another five great charts on investing that are very useful in times of uncertainty like the present

Successful investing can be really difficult in times of uncertainty like now making it important to stay.

The RBA starts raising rates - how far and how fast? And what does it mean for investors?

For the first time since November 2010, the RBA has raised its official cash rate - from 0.1% taking it to 0.35%.

How can we transition to renewable energy?

Accessing green energy isn’t only for the wealthy. Companies like Evergen are making it more affordable for everyone. We talk to Ben Hutt, CEO & Managing Director for Evergen and Bopha Ly, Managing Director, Energy for AMP Capital’s Infrastructure Equity business to get their perspective.

Can infrastructure protect from inflation?

As inflation returns to the global economy, can holding infrastructure assets protect a portfolio from rising prices? We explore.

Jobs and inflation to trigger higher rates?

The very strong employment market is putting pressure on the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates. Our Senior Economist dives deeper.

The 2022 Australian Federal election and investors

Australian election campaigns tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way.

Australian housing slowdown Q&A - What impact will higher interest rates have? How far will prices fall?

National average property prices are likely to peak around mid-year and then enter a cyclical downswing. After 22% growth in national average home prices last year, average home price growth this year is expected to be around 1% and we expect a 5-10% decline in average prices in 2023.

Five great charts on investing that are particularly useful in times of uncertainty like the present

Investing is often seen as complicated. This has been made worse over the years by: the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices; regulations and rules around investing; the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets...

Budget targeted at increases in the cost of living

The Budget delivered no surprises when it came to super. There were two measures which had a direct impact and each of them had been released previously, one only in the past few days. Graeme Colley explains further.

Federal Budget video round-up

In this short video, AMP Senior Economist Diana Mousina gives a round-up of the key outcomes from last night’s 2022-23 Federal Budget proposals and explains what effect they could have on the Australian economy.

Budget outlook for commercial real estate

The 2022-23 Budget supports investment in premium real estate assets with high-quality leasing covenants that can deliver optimal income returns through a period of volatility driven by higher interest rates.

The 2022-23 Australian Budget - a “magic election pudding” of more spending and lower deficits

The 2022-23 Budget provides a “magic election pudding” of more spending but lower deficits. The additional spending relates mainly to this calendar year and given the strong economy is more motivated by politics than economics.

The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates - implications for Australia and investors

After much anticipation, the US Federal Reserve has raised its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0-0.25%, where it’s been for the last two years since the pandemic started, to the range of 0.25-0.5%.

Another energy shock and the threat from higher petrol prices

World oil prices have spiked to their highest levels since 2008, rising more than 30% since the war in Ukraine started.

Five big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors - and why are Australian shares holding up better?

Humans do horrible things to each other, and war is the worst example of that. What was first announced by Russia earlier last week as a “peacekeeping” force ...

5 Key trends set to drive real estate performance

While the extent of the local and global economic recovery post COVID-19 is unclear, there are still opportunities for investors able to capitalise on key trends that we believe will drive the performance of commercial real estate in 2022.

US faces stiff headwinds in 2022

What happens to interest rates is always important for investors, but particularly so at turning points in the economy. Our Senior Economist discusses why.

What's the market outlook for 2022?

ShaDespite the rough and uncertain start to the year there is reason to be optimistic about the share market in 2022.

The escalation in Ukraine tensions - implications for investors

The last few days have seen a sharp escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia recognising the independence of two regions in the Donbas area

Investment outlook Q&A - inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues

This note covers the main questions investors commonly have regarding the investment outlook in a simple Q&A format.

Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

While shares have had a nice rebound from their January lows helped in part by some good earnings news – reversing around half of their 10% or so fall, ...

The RBA ends bond buying - but remains “patient” on rates.

Over the last six months several central banks have raised interest rates. This started in emerging markets but developed country central banks have also hiked rates...

Share market falls - seven things for investors to keep in mind

Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Inflation Q&A - how worried should investors be about higher inflation?

For last few decades inflation has not been much of an issue. It was all about economic activity. Books were even written about “the death of inflation”.

2022 - a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Despite a wall of worry with coronavirus and inflation, 2021 was a great year for diversified investors,

Review of 2021, outlook for 2022 – recovery to continue as we hopefully learn to live with covid

Just as 2020 was dominated by coronavirus so too was 2021. But 2021 turned out to be a far better year for investors. The big negatives of 2021 were of course dominated by coronavirus...

Opportunity beckons for retail sector

As far as real estate sectors go, retail has been the most challenged globally over the past 24 months. But for investors who are ready to look beyond the challenges, we take a look at why it's still an exciting investment and development proposition

How inflation impacts real assets

With the global economy rapidly launching back into recovery mode and prices on the rise, real assets are uniquely positioned to help investors ride out the current inflationary surge.

What’s next for the Australian and global economies? | AMP Capital

In our special outlook for 2022, we look at the tough choices investors face as global economic growth picks up.

Five reasons to expect a cooling in the Australian property market and falling prices in 2023

Australian home prices have boomed this year. They are up 22.2% over the 12 months to November according to CoreLogic with Hobart (+28%), Sydney (+26%), Brisbane (+25%), Canberra (+25%) and regional prices (+25%) leading the charge.

The longer-term legacy of coronavirus - nine implications of importance to investors

The magnitude of the coronavirus shock means it will have implications beyond those associated with its short-term economic disruption.

The benefits of investing in real assets for retirement

A retirement portfolio’s allocation of growth and defensive assets traditionally depends on an investors’ risk profile.

Infrastructure and the road to recovery

Post-COVID, what does the road to recovery for infrastructure look like? And what role does infrastructure play in a portfolio?

How real estate will play a leading role in getting to net zero

Australia’s net zero debate could leave the impression that climate change is all about heavy manufacturing, regional towns and coal-fired power stations.

Compound interest is like magic - and it’s an investor’s best friend

If there is one “technical thing” investors should know about investing, it’s the power of compound interest.

Central banks - including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad

The march of central banks towards tighter monetary policy has stepped up over the last few months.

Rising bond yields and the end of the super cycle bull market in bonds

It’s normal for bond yields to rise in economic recoveries but it’s looking increasingly likely that the nearly 40-year

Science and medicine appear to be getting the upper hand of coronavirus - implications for investors

There are increasing signs that science and medicine are getting the upper hand against coronavirus: new global cases are in decline;

Why is Australian housing so expensive and what can be done to improve housing affordability?

For as long as I can recall housing affordability has been an issue in Australia but since the 1990s it’s gone from being a periodic cyclical concern to a chronic problem.

Oliver's Insights - 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom

Australian GDP slowed in the June quarter & will be hit hard by the lockdowns - but here’s 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom

China’s growth slowdown and regulatory crackdown - what does it mean for China’s growth outlook?

After surging 65% from its coronavirus low in March 2020 to its high in February this year, the Chinese share market saw an 18% decline into July.

Six reasons why shares are at or near record levels. But is it sustainable?

Despite lots of worries - around the resurgence of coronavirus driven by the Delta variant, peak growth, peak monetary and fiscal stimulus and high inflation

Great investment quotes for topsy turvy times

The current environment seems to be one of extreme uncertainty. We have seen a strong economic recovery from last year’s global and Australian recessions

Coronavirus continues to cause havoc globally and in Australia - but here are five reasons for optimism

It seems the bad news on coronavirus doesn’t let up. The lockdown in NSW looks like going longer.

Seven key charts for investors to watch - where are they now?

In January for investors to watch as being critical to the investment outlook this year. Put simply, where are they now?

Oliver's Insights - put the latest worry list in context

Five ways to turn down the noise and stay focused as an investor

Oliver's Insights - 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year

The past financial year saw a spectacular rebound in returns for investors as the focus shifted from the recession to recovery against a backdrop of policy stimulus and vaccines. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

Oliver's Insights - The never-ending coronavirus pandemic – why snap lockdowns in Australia make sense until herd immunity is reached

News that I and many others were effectively in lockdown from Friday was depressing. It got even more depressing when the whole of Sydney and surrounds was put into a two-week lockdown on Saturday.

Oliver's Insights - Central banks heading towards the easing exits

The drumbeat of central banks heading towards the exits from ultra-easy monetary policy is getting louder

Oliver's Insights - Inflation – why it matters for investment markets

The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents

Olivers Insights - Optimistic March quarter

The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism

Oliver's Insights - Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation?

Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade.

Big-spending Federal Budget set to spur on the recovery

The 2021 Federal Budget harks back to the immediate post GFC budgets in some ways, with the Treasurer resisting any temptation to start early on the task of budget repair and doubling down on stimulus.

Olivers Insights - The 2021-22 Australian Budget – spending the growth windfall to further grow the economy towards full employment

The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at $161bn this financial year (down from $214bn in October’s Budget) and fall to $107bn in 2021-22.

Oliver's Insights - The return of geopolitical risk? – what to watch over the remainder of 2021

Geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of the US; and the polarising impact of social media.

Olivers Insights - Three reasons why the long-term bull market in Australian house prices may be getting close to the end

The Australian housing market is booming. Prices are rising sharply, auction clearance rates are very strong, sales are surging, and housing finance is around record highs.

Oliver's Insights - The importance of starting point valuations for investment returns – and where are we now?

It makes sense that the cheaper you buy an asset the higher its prospective return will be. However, this is frequently forgotten with investors often tempted to project recent returns into the future regardless of valuations.

A new age of Infrastructure, Energy, and Investment is dawning

Articles and updates. A new age of infrastructure energy and investment is dawning Preparing for the post-COVID recovery in real estate, the bonds market and more...

Oliver's Insights - Market outlook Q&A – global recovery, vaccines, inflation, the risk of a share crash, Aust house prices and other issues

Global recovery is on track. Vaccines are working. JobKeeper’s end won’t derail Australia’s recovery. Inflation could become an issue in the medium term. Shares are at risk of a correction but are supported by economic and earnings recovery.

Oliver's Insights - Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?

The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go.

Oliver's Insights - Bitcoin – it’s not a currency, it’s not a capital asset… so what is it?

Digital currencies and blockchain technology may have a lot to offer - but that does not mean Bitcoin will be it.

Oliver's Insights -The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider

The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. But the fundamental backdrop of improving growth, rising profits and still low rates supports the case for solid 6-12 month returns from shares

Six key things to know about super in 2021

The super rules change regularly, and this year is no exception.

Oliver's Insights - Nine common mistakes investors make

Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.

Capital Edition Jan/Feb 2021

Will Airports ever be the same, Real estate rock stars, USA Game changing year and the face of front line responders

Oliver's Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year.

Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates.

Oliver's Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year

Our high-level investment view is that while shares are vulnerable to a short term correction having run up hard since early November, overall investment returns will be solid this year on the back of economic recovery (driven by stimulus and the deployment of vaccines allowing a more sustained reopening) at the same time that interest rates remain low.

Oliver's Insights - US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields

US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity

Oliver's Insights 2021 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments.

Oliver's Insights - Review of 2020, outlook for 2021 – from pandemic to recovery

Review of 2020, not what it was supposed to be - Outlook for 2021 - Recovery

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

For some years now Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been gaining prominence as a solution to the perceived failure of traditional economic policies to achieve full employment & meet inflation targets, despite at or near zero interest rates.

Olivers Insight's - Joe Biden on track to become US president. Implications for investors and Australia

The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency.

RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work?

The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program.

Oliver's Insights

Despite a 35% or so plunge in share markets earlier this year; on the back of the pandemic and rough patches in 2018, 2015 and 2011, well diversified Australian investors have seen pretty good returns over the last 10 years. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 5.8% pa over the five years to August and 7.3% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes. While that’s dull compared to the double digit returns of the higher inflation world of the 1980s and 1990s, it’s pretty good once low inflation of 2% pa or less is allowed for.

Federal Budget 2020-2021

The 2020-21 Australian Budget – spend, spend, spend as the focus remains on recovery and jobs, jobs, jobs

Olivers Insight's 22 September 2020

Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

More action out of the RBA this month to support the economy | AMP Capital

In its September board meeting, we saw another move out of the RBA to support the Australian economy through COVID-19, and there could be more to come.

RBA holds – but more stimulus likely as Victorian lockdown to knock at least $12bn from national GDP

Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter.

Oliver's Insights - The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope – and why concerns about Australia’s budget deficit are overblown

The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope.

Oliver's Insights - 2019-20 saw poor returns - but it could have been much worse

The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

Oliver's Insights - The US presidential election - implications for investors

Oliver's Insights - How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases?

A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely.

Oliver's Insights - Shares climb a “wall of worry” - but is it sustainable?

The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions.

Oliver's Insights

Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead

Oliver's Insights - 10 medium to longer-term implications from the Coronavirus shock

There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc.

The coming surge in Australia’s budget deficit and public debt due to coronavirus – can we afford it?

Australia’s federal budget deficit is expected to peak at around $200bn in 2020-21, or around 10% of GDP which will be the highest since the end of WW2.

The Lucky Country - three reasons why Australia may come through this period of global misery better than most countries

Back in January when the bushfires were raging, I feared Australia’s luck had ran out. But right now, I thank god I live in The Lucky Country!

Capital Edition Issue 08


Why super and growth assets like shares have to be seen as long-term investments

This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now.

Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel – what does it mean for investors?

After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news

Magic money tree – QE & money printing and their part in the coronavirus economic rescue

Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue

Capital Edition Issue 07


What signposts can we watch to be confident shares have bottomed?

While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process

The coronavirus pandemic and the economy – a Q&A from an investment perspective

Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate

Is coronavirus driving a recession, depression or an economic hit like no other? What does it mean for the bear market in shares?

Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts.

The threat to Australian house prices from Coronavirus

The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which prices would bounce back.

Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like these

Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook.

The increasing economic threat from coronavirus - what to watch for and what should investors do?

The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets.

Capital edition issue 6

How the next generation is investing?

The plunge in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

The plunge in share markets over the last week has generated much coverage and consternation.

The increasing spread of Coronavirus – updated economic and investment market implications

While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields.

Oliver's Insights - Three reasons why low inflation is good for shares and property

Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction - Key things to watch out for are recession and much higher inflation.

From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

Olivers Insights -The China Coronavirus outbreak – economic and investment market implications

The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high given that the coronavirus is more contagious than SARS albeit with lower mortality. Key to watch for is a peak in new cases and contained transmission in developed countries.

Capital Edition - Why a Global Fund Manager Hired a Gamer

Bushfires and the Australian economy

The Australian bushfire season that began in September has been horrific with more than 7 million hectares of bush destroyed, more than 25 deaths, significant loss of livestock, estimates of more than a billion wildlife animals killed and more than 1800 homes destroyed. More than 200 fires are still burning. Following the intensification of the bushfires over the Christmas/New Year period attention has now turned to the impact on the economy. This note looks at the key impacts.

Learn about refinancing your home loan and how it can save you money

Even if you secured a competitive package when you first took out your home loan, it’s worth reviewing each year1 to ensure the interest rates, fees and features continue to meet your needs. By refinancing you may be able to pay off your home loan sooner.

Capital Edition - Strength in unity

In this month’s issue we discuss how: James Maydew believes that having culture and strategy on the same blueprint is an absolute imperative climate change is impacting the real estate sector, and how leaders and businesses are standing up to the task of tackling it Julie-Anne Mizzi uses her innate passion for investing in infrastructure for those who need it, and the familiar airport retail experience is set for a makeover.

Oliver's insights - Review of 2019, outlook for 2020 - the beat goes on

2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary policy remaining easy. Expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% and to undertake quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, share markets are likely to see reasonable but more constrained & volatile returns, and bond yields are likely to back up resulting in good but more modest returns from a diversified mix of assets. The main things to keep an eye on are: the trade wars; the US election; global growth; Chinese growth; and fiscal versus monetary stimulus in Australia.

Oliver's insights - Why super and growth assets like shares really are long-term investments

While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. The best approach is to simply recognise that super and investing in shares is a long-term investment.

Oliver's Insights - Five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook

There is no denying concerns about global debt, seemingly never ending QE, more debt trading on negative interest rates, inequality & geopolitical threats.

Capital Edition - A force for good

This month, we’re also showcasing our investment and market insights with an analysis of the revolution sitting at the world’s doorstep. The next industrial revolution, powered by 5G, looms so large it could eclipse the three preceding. The cyber world is set to be woven into our lives and jobs with unprecedented form and speed, having a transformative impact on how we live, work, socialise and invest.

Oliver's Insights - 21 great investment quotes

The world of investing can be confusing and scary at times. But fortunately, the basics of investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is insightful and easy to understand. In recent years I’ve written several insights highlighting investment quotes I find particularly useful. Here are some more.

Salary sacrificing into super – how it works

Salary sacrificing into super involves reducing your take-home pay to put more money away for your retirement. See what you need to know.

Five great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)

Since I first looked at “Five great charts on investing for income” two years ago, the Australian cash rate has halved, 10-year bond yields have fallen by two thirds and interest rates have resumed falling globally. Ever lower interest rates and periodic turmoil in investment markets provides an ongoing reminder of the importance of the income (cash) flow or yield an investment provides. The environment of low interest rates is challenging for those relying on investment income to fund their living costs and investing for income can seem daunting. So this note looks at five charts I find useful in understanding investing for income.

Has Australia really had three recessions in the last 28 years?

The claim that Australia has gone 28 years without a recession since the early 1990s recession ended in 1991 has been subject to some criticism in recent times with the economy sliding into a “per capita recession” where economic growth has been below population growth.

Oliver's Insights: Investment returns have been good, but they are likely to slow over the next five years

The past 10 years have seen pretty good returns for well-diversified investors. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 7.3% pa over the five years to July and 8.2% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes.

Oliver's Insights: Will the world slip up on oil again? – after oil prices spike as attacks disrupt Saudi production

A significant spike in Australian petrol prices would pose a further threat to consumer spending and growth in Australia, adding to pressure on the RBA to ease further.

Olivers Insights - Australian house prices back from the abyss - seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been under supplied The combination of rate cuts, the election and a modest regulatory relaxation have helped turn property prices back up, but the upswing is likely to be constrained

Negative rates, QE & other measures the RBA may deploy – why? will it work? what would it mean for investors? | AMP Capital

Since the RBA started cutting interest rates again back in June and in the process taking them closer to zero there has been increasing debate that it will deploy so-called “unconventional monetary policy measures” such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing. This debate has hotted up in recent weeks after the escalation in the US-China trade war posing a rising threat to global growth, numerous central banks cutting interest rates this month in a so-called “race to zero”, the Governor of Reserve Bank of New Zealand saying that negative rates are possible and RBA Governor Lowe saying that its “prepared to do unconventional things if the circumstances warranted it” even though he also said that QE was “unlikely”. News of a Danish lender offering negative mortgage rates has only added interest to the issue. But what exactly are these unconventional monetary policy measures? Do they work? Would they work in Australia? Are there better options? Will they be deployed and when? What will it all mean for investors?

Plunging bond yields & weak share markets amidst talk of recession – what does it mean for investors? | AMP Capital

Market Update 9 August 2019

The past week saw a roller coaster ride in share markets with sharp falls after China responded to US President Trump’s latest tariffs by letting the Renminbi fall in value and ordering state-owned enterprises to halt agricultural imports from the US and the US responded by labelling China a currency manipulator, followed by a rebound as China limited downside in the Renminbi and more central banks eased only to see softness return as President Trump said US/China trade talks in September may not go ahead.

Escalating US-China trade war – triggering (another) correction in share markets | AMP Capital

After a third round of talks made little progress last week, the US/China trade war has escalated badly with tit for tat moves on an almost daily basis by each side...

Olivers Insights - The Fed cuts rates | AMP Capital

As widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve has cut its key Fed Funds cash rate by 0.25% to a range of 2-2.25%...

How are Australia’s states and territories tracking

Australia’s economy has often been described as “multi-speed” which occurs if growth across the states and territories varies significantly.

8 tips for female entrepreneurs

More Australian women are starting their own businesses but they remain under represented as entrepreneurs with many challenges holding them back. Find out more with AMP

Protecting Your Super package

This year, the federal government introduced laws called the Protecting Your Super package. It’s a big deal because it addresses important changes to superannuation that are here to stay. In fact, there’s even been an industry-wide campaign about how it’s time to check your super.

The longest US economic expansion ever – does this mean recession is around the corner? | AMP Capital

A common concern ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) ended a decade ago is that the next recession is imminent...

2018-19 saw a rough ride for investors but it turned out okay

The past financial year saw a roller coaster ride for investors. Share markets plunged into Christmas only to rebound over the last six months. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the investment outlook for 2019-20.

AMP reveals what’s changing in the new financial year

The new financial year will see a raft of laws and scheduled changes coming into force impacting everything from extra super contributions, through to the age you can access the pension and the introduction of a government-funded reverse mortgage option for self-funded retirees.

Rent vs lifestyle—can you have it all?

Rental payments can make a real dent in your bottom line so it’s a good idea to find a balance between location and lifestyle

Olivers Insights - Australian growth will be constrained - but here’s nine reasons why recession is unlikely

Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. > However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the drag from falling mining investment is over; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; infrastructure spending is booming; there has been no sign of panic property selling; economic policy remains sensible; population growth remains strong; and the RBA can still do more.

Olivers Insights - The $A still has more downside, but a lot of the weakness is behind us

The Australian dollar likely faces more downside as Australian growth is weaker than US growth and the RBA is likely to stimulate more than the Fed. However, downside may be limited to around $US0.65 given that the $A has already had a large fall, short positions in the $A are large, the iron ore price remains high (for now) and the Fed is also heading towards rate cuts. Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the $A is a good hedge against threats to the global outlook it still makes sense for Australian investors to maintain a decent exposure to foreign currency via unhedged global investments.

Olivers Insights - The nine most important things I have learnt about investing over the past 35 years

RBA cuts rates to a new record low – why? will it work? how low will rates go? and what does it mean for investors?

Key points The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. More rate cuts are likely to be needed ultimately taking the cash rate to a low of 0.5% next year. Ideally this will be combined with more fiscal stimulus. For investors it means low interest rates for even longer.

What the Coalition’s election victory means for Australia’s economy | AMP Capital

The Liberal-National Coalition has retained power in Australia’s Federal election. Find out what it means from an economic perspective. Learn more with AMP Capital.

Australian house prices getting closer to the bottom, but don’t expect a return to boom time conditions | AMP Capital

The negatives weighing on Australian residential property prices remain significant but the past few weeks have seen a number of developments...

Moving interstate? The cost of living in a new Australian city could surprise you

If you’re relocating to a new city, it’s a good idea to do your homework about living costs…particularly if it’s Sydney.

The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia | AMP Capital

The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down...

14 money mistakes to avoid in your younger years

Which of these rookie errors sound all too familiar when it comes to you and your squad?

Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away” and what about renewed trade war fears? | AMP Capital

Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November...

Inflation undershoots in Australia – why it’s a concern, is the RBA running out of ammo & what it means for investors? | AMP Capital

Surprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates...

The 2019 Australian Federal election and investors | AMP Capital

Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way...

The 2019-20 Australian Budget – the long-awaited surplus and the promise of more tax cuts ahead of the election | AMP Capital

The 2019-20 Budget “delivers” the long-awaited surplus and increased fiscal stimulus mainly via tax cuts/offsets...

2019-20 Federal Budget

Find out how the measures announced in the 2019-20 Federal Budget could affect you Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has handed down the Morrison Government’s first Federal Budget. Among the proposed changes were personal income tax cuts and changes to super rules. Read on for a round-up of the proposals put forward and a look at how they might affect your household expenses and financial future, whatever your stage of life

How to play catch up with your super

Now you can put more into super at the concessional rate of tax, starting from the 2019-20 financial year.

Women and money in relationships

What to get right when it comes to money matters

Global growth slowing, plunging bond yields & inverted yield curves – not terminal but shares are due a pull back

The past week has seen a renewed intensification of concerns about global growth. Bond yields have plunged and associated growth worries have weighed on share markets...

Managing investment risk

Working out your risk profile is the first step towards developing a diversified investment portfolio

“Millennial socialism” and the swing of the political pendulum back to the left – what it means for investors | AMP Capital

Growing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left...

Why I still love dividends and you should love them too

Dividends are great for investors. They augur well for earnings growth, provide a degree of security in uncertain times, are likely to comprise a relatively high proportion of returns going forward and provide a relatively stable source of income...

Most older Aussies say they'd prefer home care over a nursing home

While nearly nine in 10 say they have a preference, less than five in 10 have discussed their wishes with their family. What about you?

Five great charts on investing – why they are particularly important now

Successful investing should be simple but increasing rules, regulations, choices and social media are making it anything but. At its core, it is still simple though...

9 retirement thought starters for people in or nearing their 40s

While you’ve still got time on your side, check out this list of things to think about, so you can hopefully continue the party in retirement.

6 predictions for the Australian economy in 2019

AMP Capital's Chief Economist Shane Oliver gives his forecast for house prices, economic growth and interest rates.

Australian housing downturn Q&A – how bad will it get? | AMP Capital

Australian home prices are likely to fall another 5-10% this year driven by a further 15% or so fall in Sydney & Melbourne. Tight credit, rising supply and falling price expectations are the main negatives...

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook | AMP Capital

Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was...

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet) | AMP Capital

The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth...

Commercial property investing for SMSFs: why now and how? | AMP Capital

If your SMSF contains residential investment properties, it’s understandable you could be feeling nervous...

6 checks on whether acquisitions create value | AMP Capital

In the current economic environment many companies are finding it difficult to grow earnings organically so they are turning to acquisitions more frequently...

More than $5 million in super released for first home buyers

Under the First Home Super Saver Scheme, individuals (who've never owned a home) are accessing a portion of their super savings to do so. First home buyers have withdrawn more than $5 million from superannuation funds1 across the board under a federal government scheme designed to make housing more affordable. Townsends Business and Corporate Lawyers special counsel Michael Hallinan said he was surprised there had been such significant uptake in the scheme's first few months of operation. This was because there seemed to have been too little time to accumulate sufficient eligible contributions to make accessing the scheme – which can only be done once – worthwhile. The First Home Super Saver scheme has been up and running since July 1 this year.

Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

> The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. > Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the likelihood of a US/China trade deal sometime in the next six months and the plunge in oil prices all add to confidence that a grizzly bear market is unlikely.

13 common sense tips to help manage your finances | AMP Capital

> Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge. Here are 13 tips that may be of use: shop around when it comes to financial services; don’t take on too much debt; allow that interest rates can go up as well as down; allow for rainy days; credit cards are great but they deserve respect; use your mortgage (if you can) for all longer term debt; start saving and investing early; allow that asset prices go up and down; try and see financial events in their longer-term context; know your risk tolerance; make the most of the Mum and Dad bank; be wary of the crowd; and there is no free lunch...

What are the 3 biggest living expenses for households?

We check out the three largest contributors to household spending in Australia and where people would source cash if living expenses increased. Find out more with AMP.

Are shares expensive? | AMP Capital

Some commentators claim shares are way overvalued and so a crash is inevitable...

The pullback in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

Dr Shane Oliver explains what investors should keep in mind.

The pullback in shares - seven things investors need to keep in mind | AMP Capital

Sharp market falls with headlines screaming that billions of dollars have been wiped off the share market (funny that you never see the same headlines on the way up!) are stressful for investors as no one likes to see the value of their investments decline. However, several things are worth bearing in mind...

Money mistakes you make in your 20s

Which of these money mistakes sound all too familiar when it comes to you and your squad? Find out more with AMP.

How I became mortgage-free at 35 (and now enjoy financial freedom)

The first strategy is to always pay more than the minimum.

Successful investing despite 115 million worries and Truth Decay – how to turn down the noise | AMP Capital

A surge in financial information and opinion combined with our inclination to focus on negative news risks making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more reactive, less reflective & more short term. This is potentially harmful to our long-term financial health.

Seven lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for investors | AMP Capital

The period August to October is a time for anniversaries of financial market crises – the 1929 share crash, the 1974 bear market low, the 1987 share crash, the Emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, and of course the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008...

Five things you need to know about the Australian economy | AMP Capital

For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above trend growth. In the event neither has happened and we don’t see them happening anytime soon. Against this backdrop there are five things you should know about the Australian economy...

Investment returns over the next five years are likely to slow | AMP Capital

The past five years have seen pretty good returns for well-diversified investors. While cash and bond returns have been modest, growth assets have been strong. Average balance growth superannuation funds have returned 8.5% pa over the five years to June and that’s after fees and taxes. This is particularly impressive given that inflation has been around 2%.

Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally | AMP Capital

For the last two calendar years the Australian dollar has defied our expectations for weakness. But after hitting $US0.81 in January it’s been trending down as US interest rates fell below the Australian cash rate, the threat of a US-driven trade war increased and it recently broke below a short-term range around $US0.74 and fell as low as $US0.72 on fears of contagion to global growth from a crisis in Turkey.

More than one-fifth of Australians in their mid 20s still live at home with parents: survey

More than one in five Australian’s in their mid 20s still live at home. Find out why and learn more with AMP.

Nine keys to successful investing | AMP Capital

7 money personalities you may identify with or want to avoid

This list of common money personalities could shed light on how you and those around you measure up. Find out more with AMP.

Lender’s mortgage insurance explained

Find out what lender's mortgage insurance is and how it could affect your home loan and what you pay back. AMP explains in simple terms.

AMP and the Royal Commission FAQ - AMP

FAQ regarding AMP and the Royal Commission

AMP grant winner cultivates Australia’s farmers of tomorrow

AMP Tomorrow Maker Sam Marwood and friends are matching retiring farmers with those wanting to work the land but lack the financial means.

Super investment options – what’s right for you?

Choosing the right super investment options at the right time could make a difference to how much money you have when you retire. Find out more with AMP.

New legislation aims to benefit first home buyers

Eligible first home buyers can now withdraw certain voluntary super contributions to put toward a home deposit. Find out more with AMP.

New rules to benefit those downsizing for retirement

Aussies aged 65 and over can now top up their super with the proceeds from the sale of their main residence. Learn more about downsizing for retirement with AMP.

Affordable school holiday activities

Find out how AMP News&insights readers will be keeping their kids entertained in the school holidays without forking out a bundle of cash. Follow AMP's budget tips for the school holidays.

Should the RBA raise rates to prepare households for higher global rates? | AMP Capital

Global trade wars could escalate | AMP Capital

Putting the global “debt bomb” in perspective – seven reasons to be alert but not alarmed | AMP Capital

Superannuation and separation: Who keeps the money?

If you file for divorce, or separate from your de facto, who gets to keep the superannuation money? Discover more about superannuation and divorce today with AMP.

China’s economy is pretty stable – but what about high debt levels and other risks? | AMP Capital

Retirement planning – make the most of your money

Retirement planning? Ensure you make the most of your money. Discover how to make every dollar count with these five simple tips. Learn more today with AMP.

Work expenses - what can you claim on tax?

See what you need to know about claiming work-related expenses and don’t forget to lodge your tax return by 31 October, unless you’re using a tax agent.

Italy is a worry - but 3 reasons not to be concerned about an Itexit | AMP Capital

After the Australian household debt and east coast housing booms – interest rates on hold until 2020 | AMP Capital

How much super should I have at my age?

How much super should I have at my age? If you’re wondering whether your super is on track, compare it to others your age. Learn more today with AMP.

Paying bills on time just became more important

With comprehensive credit reporting due to kick off from 1 July 2018, paying your bills on time will become even more important.

Are you entitled to a tax deduction on personal super contributions?

This financial year is the first time employees can claim a tax deduction for their personal super contributions. Find out more with AMP.

7 questions to determine how much insurance you might need

Everyone is different, so it’s important to ask yourself the right questions as the cover you require will depend on multiple factors.

Planning for a (much) longer life

We generally need to make earnings from 40 to 50 years in the workforce extend across what could be 80 to 90 years of living.

What is the cost of raising a child?

Raising kids can be an expensive business, so make sure you’re informed. What is the cost of raising a child in Australia? Discover more today with AMP.

New legislation aims to benefit downsizers and first home buyers

Changes aimed at improving housing affordability have passed through parliament. Find out more with AMP.

Lessons from the Blue Zones: how to live longer – secrets of a long life

Want to know how to live a longer, healthier life and make your money last? AMP explores what we can learn from the Blue Zones and the secrets of a long life.

Separating fact from fiction when it comes to superannuation

If you’re wondering whether super is improving retirement outcomes for Australians, AMP takes a look at some of the findings.

What are the benefits of a split home loan?

If you can’t decide between a fixed or variable rate home loan, a split home loan could provide the best of both worlds. Discover the benefits with AMP.

The pullback in shares - seven reasons not to be too concerned

The recent share pullback has seen much coverage and generated much concern. Dr Shane Oliver offers seven considerations for investors.

The pros and cons of investment bonds

Investment bonds (also known as insurance or growth bonds) can be a tax-effective way to invest and save for the future. Find out more with AMP.

5 steps to take control

Achieving financial independence doesn’t have to be complex. Five commonsense steps could help you enjoy the life you want to lead.

What is an ethical super fund?

Investing your super in an ethical way is a growing trend in Australia. Learn more about responsible and ethical super investment with AMP.

Are you eligible for school subsidies?

Get up to speed with the government subsidies you may be able to access before the kids go back to school. Browse by state and territory allowances.

Australians reveal their priority goals

Most Australians indicate their biggest life goal is a financial one, but many admit failing to plan is a roadblock.

Will you suffer from post-purchase blues this festive season?

A survey has revealed that around 90% of Aussies make impulse purchases. Find out how you can make your money go further with AMP.

How to have a budget friendly holiday this summer

Looking for a cheap holiday destination that won’t break the bank? Discover some of the best options both at home and abroad. Learn more today with AMP.

What do Aussies do with their super?

Find out where and what retirees are investing and spending their superannuation money on, and how you can use your super money today.

Will Australian house prices crash?

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver shares 5 reasons why the Australian property market is more complicated than the crash calls suggest.

Estate planning: what’s involved?

Estate planning is about more than just making a will. Learn how to make sure you and your money are well looked after later in life.

How to make every cent count

Are you feeling the pinch? There are a couple of key principles you can follow to help improve your financial situation.

7 ways to boost your super

Discover the many ways that you can boost your superannuation and reap the rewards in retirement. Learn more with AMP today.

More Aussies retiring later in life

Increased life expectancy means more Aussies will need to retire later in life. Find out about the implications of this and the considerations you may need to make.

5 ways to a longer, healthier, happier life

The best ways to sustain your physical, mental and financial wellbeing are sometimes the simplest. Discover five key tips to happy and healthy ageing.

What will spring serve up for first home buyers and upgraders?

Find out what lies ahead for the spring property market for first home buyers and upgraders from AMP Capital economist, Diana Mousina.

5 life insurance questions you’ve always wanted to ask

There are several questions people have about insurance. See what they are and what you can do! – AMP

Most kids expect to stay at home until they're 30

See why more Aussies are choosing to live with their parents for longer.

What’s an annuity?

An annuity provides you with a guaranteed income in retirement, regardless of how markets perform. Check out the pros and cons.

Closing the deal as a first home buyer

You’ve made an offer on your first property, but you’re not home and hosed yet. Find out what you can expect in the final weeks before settlement.

5 ways to make your gap year attractive to employers

If you’re looking to turn your gap year into something employers will value, check out these five things worth taking note of.

Should I rent or buy a home?

Don't know whether to rent or buy a home? Check out the latest economic outlook to help you understand the benefits and downsides of both options.

How much super should I have at my age?

If you’re wondering whether your super is on track, compare it to others your age.

Should I pay off my student debt early?

Depending on your situation, there may be pros and cons to clearing your student debt before you have to. Here’s what you need to know!

What is the retirement age in Australia?

Understand the difference between retirement age and preservation age? See how they affect your ability to retire, and the options available to you.

Your 5-point action plan when faced with redundancy

If you or someone you know has recently been made redundant, check out our 5-point action plan for what to do next.

The Australian consumer outlook: more headwinds to come

The Australian retail environment remains in a tough position due to factors weighing on consumer demand along with discounting pressures from competitors.

5 credit card clawbacks that hit people who clear their balance

More than ever, smart credit card use extends far beyond just clearing your debt.

Beyond the budget

Six things to think about when organising your family finances.

Childcare is expensive, but not working costs more

The price of childcare may be a deterrent to working, but loss of income, super and other benefits may cost more.

Top tips when buying a property with your partner

Taking out a mortgage together means commitment and compromise. Find out what you and your partner should consider early on.

Millions but not all to benefit from 2017 super changes

Many Australians, in particular low-income earners, are set to benefit from the latest superannuation changes. See how new rules could impact you.

A new financial year - outlook and tips for investors in 2017/18

Is growth still in the forecast for the new financial year? Shane Oliver reveals his predictions

'Covert violence': The hidden cost of financial abuse

Economic abuse is recognised as a form of domestic violence in many, but not all, Australian states.

Contemplating a gap year later in life?

Discover the misconceptions of taking a gap year as a working adult and see why a sabbatical or career break may be just what you need.

What happens to my super when I die?

Superannuation isn’t usually included in your will, so if you want it to end up in the right hands, it’s important to be across what you need to do.

What opportunities are there for investors this year?

Find out about investment opportunities in 2017 from Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Investors.

Don’t miss out on potential super opportunities

With superannuation changes taking effect on 1 July 2017, find out how to use the time left to take advantage of potential opportunities.

Oliver's Insights

Knowing what's happening in the economic markets can help, together with your financial planner, make confident decisions about your financial well-being. Dr Shane Oliver delivers an up to date and easy to understand view of the global markets through our regular publication "Oliver's Insights"

Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital Investors and one of Australia's most respected economists.

For the latest editions of Oliver's insights, click here

AMP.NATSEM reports

Since 2001, AMP and the National Centre for Social and Economic Modeling (NATSEM) in Canberra have produced a series of reports that open windows on Australian society, the way we live and work - and our financial and personal aspirations.

The reports focus on the distribution of income and wealth as key factors that differentiate generations and segments of society. AMP sponsors this research to help our customers make informed financial and lifestyle choices.

Reports include: "Modern Family - The changing shape of Australian families - October 2013", "The Cost of Kids: the cost of raising children in Australia - May 2013" and "Prices these days! The cost of living in Australia - May 2012". View the reports here.


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